IsMichaelBurryRight – Live Index Tracking AI Bubble Stress Signals

Name: IsMichaelBurryRight – Live Index Tracking AI Bubble Stress Signals
Availability: InStock
Author: antonionduarte

by antonionduarte·Feb 17, 2026·3 points·0 comments

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AI Analysis

●●SolidBig BrainRabbit Hole

Michael Burry-inspired AI capex stress index with daily signal updates and founding member API.

Strengths

•Rigorous signal selection: 12 metrics mapped to SEC filings, FINRA TRACE, and historical benchmarks (not hand-wavy sentiment.
•Daily updates + public free tier; daily Friday newsletter; clear capex/EBITDA comparison (AT&T telecom vs dot-com precedent).
•Strong ICP: investors and analysts who remember 2008 and want early-warning systems.

Weaknesses

•Signal weighting methodology not fully transparent in landing copy—trusting the index requires deeper docs.
•Monetization is seats-limited ($199/yr for 200 founding members); scaling the product faces friction.

Post Description

I'm a software engineer who got curious about whether the AI infrastructure buildout follows the same patterns as the telecom and dot-com cycles. So I built a composite stress index that tracks 12 financial signals: credit spreads, capex/EBITDA ratios, NVIDIA revenue deceleration, neocloud leverage, hyperscaler debt issuance - and maps them against historical benchmarks.

The data comes from SEC filings, FINRA TRACE, and public market data. Current reading: the AI buildout's capex intensity is tracking closer to AT&T's telecom peak (72% of EBITDA) than the dot-com equity bubble.

Stack: Go backend, Fly.io deployment (collector, private API and public API deployments separate), Postgres database. Next.js frontend deployed on Vercel.

Would love feedback on the methodology and signal weighting. The full breakdown is on the website.