Finance●●Solid
AI Models AI Capex
Stress-test the AI capex bubble with six adjustable levers and five economic shock scenarios.
Big BrainNiche Gem
liujjw
204mo ago
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A playable toy model of frontier AI lab capex decisions
by jimmyechan·Feb 14, 2026·8 points·0 comments
AI Analysis
●MidCozyRabbit Hole
Compute CAPEX sim inspired by Dario Amodei's Dwarkesh podcast, but pure toy model.
Strengths
- •Simplified mental model of a real, complex problem (infra vs. training vs. inference tradeoffs).
- •No signup, runs on mobile, playable in 2–3 minutes—excellent friction removal.
Weaknesses
- •Deliberately omits real-world factors, so insights don't transfer to actual infrastructure decisions.
- •Educational toy, not a tool—no persistent state, no import/export, no team play.
Category
Target Audience
AI enthusiasts, founders, people interested in AI infrastructure economics.
Post Description
I made a lightweight web game about compute CAPEX tradeoffs: https://darios-dilemma.up.railway.app/
No signup, runs on mobile/desktop.
Loop per round:
1. choose compute capacity 2. forecast demand 3. allocate capacity between training and inference 4. random demand shock resolves outcome
You can end profitable, cash constrained, or bankrupt depending on allocation + forecast error.
Goal was to make the decision surface intuitive in 2–3 minutes per run.
It’s a toy model and deliberately omits many real world factors.
Note: this is based on what I learned after listening to Dario on Dwarkesh's podcast - thought it was fascinating.
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