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A playable toy model of frontier AI lab capex decisions

A playable toy model of frontier AI lab capex decisions

by jimmyechan·Feb 14, 2026·8 points·0 comments
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AI Analysis

●MidCozyRabbit Hole

Compute CAPEX sim inspired by Dario Amodei's Dwarkesh podcast, but pure toy model.

Strengths
  • •Simplified mental model of a real, complex problem (infra vs. training vs. inference tradeoffs).
  • •No signup, runs on mobile, playable in 2–3 minutes—excellent friction removal.
Weaknesses
  • •Deliberately omits real-world factors, so insights don't transfer to actual infrastructure decisions.
  • •Educational toy, not a tool—no persistent state, no import/export, no team play.
Category
Gaming
Target Audience

AI enthusiasts, founders, people interested in AI infrastructure economics.

Post Description

I made a lightweight web game about compute CAPEX tradeoffs: https://darios-dilemma.up.railway.app/

No signup, runs on mobile/desktop.

Loop per round:

1. choose compute capacity 2. forecast demand 3. allocate capacity between training and inference 4. random demand shock resolves outcome

You can end profitable, cash constrained, or bankrupt depending on allocation + forecast error.

Goal was to make the decision surface intuitive in 2–3 minutes per run.

It’s a toy model and deliberately omits many real world factors.

Note: this is based on what I learned after listening to Dario on Dwarkesh's podcast - thought it was fascinating.

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