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I built an ML stock picker that runs daily on a single server

I built an ML stock picker that runs daily on a single server

by fkratzer·Feb 25, 2026·2 points·0 comments

AI Analysis

MidBold Bet

Solo founder ML stock picker vs robo-advisors, but unproven strategy, undercapitalized infrastructure.

Strengths
  • Technical stack (LightGBM + JAX PPO + materialized views + surgical daily updates) shows engineering discipline.
  • Walk-forward validation + feature engineering (51 signals) avoids obvious overfitting pitfalls.
  • Single-server ops cost is lean, enabling $99/month pricing vs 1% AUM robo-advisors.
Weaknesses
  • 18.3% backtested returns claimed with zero independent audit, regulatory disclosure, or live performance proof.
  • Centralizes stock-picking risk on one person's model; no evidence of edge over published factor research or diversification.
  • Regulatory risk: SEC may view this as unlicensed investment advisory; $99/month SaaS structure does not fix that.
Category
Target Audience

Individual retail investors seeking algorithmic stock picks without robo-advisor fees

Similar To

Robo-advisors (Betterment, Wealthfront) · Factor-based ETFs (Vanguard factor suite)

Post Description

I'm a solo founder who got frustrated paying 1% AUM to robo-advisors that just buy ETFs. So I built my own ML system to pick individual stocks instead.

The stack:

LightGBM gradient boosting for stock ranking (~30 min training) JAX PPO reinforcement learning for position sizing (~5.5 hrs training) 51 features: value metrics, momentum, quality factors, sentiment Walk-forward validation (no lookahead bias) PostgreSQL + FastAPI + React on a single Hetzner CCX33 (32GB RAM, 8 vCPU)

How it works: Every evening after market close, the pipeline runs: fetch EOD data, calculate ratios, refresh materialized views, retrain models, generate predictions, rebalance portfolios. Surgical daily updates (1-5 position changes) rather than full rebuilds.

Recent war story: Three weeks ago I had 19+ consecutive pipeline failures. Materialized views owned by postgres user blocked my acis user from refreshing. Cascade: stale technical indicators -> no PE/PB data -> broken ML features -> invalid predictions. Recovery required manual rebuilds of EMA, SMA, RSI, MACD for 1,700+ stocks. Lesson: monitor data freshness, not just job completion.

Results so far: 61 trading days tracked. Best strategy: +9% alpha vs SPY. Live performance data (updated daily): https://acis-trading.com/investor-reports

The model:

$99/month flat fee (vs ~$5,000/year at 1% AUM on $500K) You keep your money at your own brokerage Daily recommendations via API or web dashboard

Happy to answer questions about the ML architecture, pipeline design, or the business model.

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