Starlink constellation health – 108 reentry anomalies in TLE data

Name: Starlink constellation health – 108 reentry anomalies in TLE data
Availability: InStock
Author: mojoatomic

by mojoatomic·Mar 25, 2026·3 points·0 comments

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AI Analysis

●●SolidBig BrainNiche Gem

Predicts satellite reentries 471 days out using trajectory geometry instead of atmospheric drag models.

Strengths

•Processes 39.9M TLE records with reproducible Python code on GitHub
•Claims 100% recall on 257 confirmed reentries with 471-day lead time
•Identifies 108 operational satellites showing precursor geometry signals

Weaknesses

•Main Zenodo link returns 403 Forbidden blocking access to the dataset
•Highly niche audience limits broader developer appeal or utility

Post Description

Applied geometric trajectory similarity (STTS) to 39.9M TLE records across the full Starlink constellation. Instead of propagating orbits forward through atmospheric models, the framework asks: does this satellite's trajectory geometrically resemble trajectories that preceded confirmed reentries?

Results on 257 confirmed reentries: V1=250.6x basin separation, Recall=1.000, mean detection lead 471 days.

Applied to 15,170 operational satellites: 108 fire the reentry signal. Not in the deorbit campaign. BSTAR is normal — signal is trajectory geometry. 23 are above 600km where drag is negligible.

Prior work (Oliveira et al. 2025, Frontiers) tracked SC25 effects on satellites that already reentered. This asks the forward-looking question: which operational satellites currently show precursor geometry?

Code runs on a clean clone. Reproducible 10/10. https://github.com/mojoatomic/stts.git