Mondael.com – Institutional Intelligence for Prediction Markets

This project grew out of frustration of trying to find out the odds of a Hantavirus pandemic. When I went to search for it, I had to wade through sports gambling, and novelty markets that distracted me from just getting a really useful number with context to know if it was accurate.

To solve this, my friend and I made mondael.com, which we're using to analyze, and visualize interesting prediction markets in the realm of: Geopolitics, Elections, Macro, Finance, Energy, and Science & Technology.

The basic belief is that prediction markets can often move faster than news, but only if the data is filtered, organized, and presented in a way that separates real signal from noise. The site is free and open for all to explore. Once we had the core database working, we started adding tools around it:

- Live Brier scoring: track how accurate markets are across desks, tags, and topics.

- Cross-asset correlations: compare prediction markets with real-world assets like stocks, FX, commodities, and ETFs, including lead/lag analysis.

- Market structure analysis: use bubble charts to compare liquidity, volume, order-book depth, 5pp depth, spreads, and related measures.

- Alerts: surface events like volume bumps, leader changes, price spikes, and other unusual market activity.

Any feedback is appreciated and will be considered.