GitHub Repository

An autonomous agent that forecasts station temperatures and trades them on Kalshi and Polymarket. Every claim is published before it settles, with the market price it was formed against and what would falsify it. Build in public, trade in public — live at openthomas.com.

1 starsPython

OpenThomas – weather trader agent for prediction markets

Name: OpenThomas – weather trader agent for prediction markets
Availability: InStock
Author: thomaslwang

by thomaslwang·Jul 11, 2026·1 point·0 comments

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AI Analysis

●●SolidBig BrainNiche Gem

Seven-model consensus with fractional Kelly sizing beats the standard LLM-only trading bot.

Strengths

•Hindcast mode validates bias against historical data before risking real capital.
•Paper trading default simulates fills against live order books without API keys.
•Explicitly targets the fastest learning loop in prediction markets for rapid iteration.

Weaknesses

•Weather markets are a narrow niche compared to broader financial or political events.
•Relies on external NWS data stability and specific market resolution rules.

Post Description

An open-source agent that forecasts station temperatures and trades them. Build in public & trade in public. Site: https://openthomas.com Repo: https://github.com/PredictionMarketTrader/openthomas